Club of Rome New World Order


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serpentiumiluminati
21-08-2010, 10:21 AM
New World Order
Club of Rome Report
REGIONALIZED AND ADAPTIVE MODEL
OF THE GLOBAL WORLD SYSTEM

Report on the Progress in the
STRATEGY FOR SURVIVAL PROJECT
of the
Club of Rome
Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, Directors

"C O N F I D E N T I A L"

September 17, 1973
1. Motivation and Objectives
The world problematique formulated by the CLUB OF ROME is not only global in
nature, involving factors traditionally considered as unrelated, but also points to the
crisis situations which are developing in spite of the noblest of intentions and, indeed,
as their corollary. To point out the problematique and the spectrum of critical and
traumatic situations it entails is not enough; the acceptance of the reality of the
problematique MUST BE FOLLOWED BY CHANGES IF THE CONCERN IS NOT
TO REMAIN PURELY ACADEMIC. It is necessary, therefore, to present the issues
within the problematique in specific and relevant terms which requires regions
interpretation of the global issues. Furthermore, a basis should be provided for the
resolution of conflicts (inevitably accompanying the problematique-type situations)
through cooperation rather than confrontation. These factors have provided the
motivation for initiation of the Strategy for Survival project which calls for the
construction of a regionalized and adaptive model of the total world system with tht
following specific objectives:
(1) TO ENABLE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SCENARIOS FOR THE
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD SYSTEM which represent visions of
the world future stemming from different cultures and value systems and reflecting
hopes and fears in different regions of the world.
(ii) To develop a planning and options-assessment tool for long-range issues, and
thereby TO PROVIDE A BASIS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION by cooperation
rather than confrontation.
2. Basic Structure of the Model
The basic characteristics of the model are:
(i) THE WORLD SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED in terms of interacting regions with
provisions made to investigate any individual country or subregion in the context of
regional and global development. Presently the world system is represented BY TEN
REGIONS: NORTH AMERICA, WESTERN EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE,
JAPAN, REST OF DEVELOPED WORLD, LATIN AMERICA, MIDDLE EAST,
REST OF AFRICA, SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA, AND CHINA.
(ii) In order to be able to deal with the complex of factors involved in problematique
in a way which is sound, credible and systematic, a hierarchical structure has bee
adopted for the model in which each level in the hierarchy represents the evolution of
the world system within a context defined by a given set of laws and principles.
Specifically, the levels involved are:
GEO-PHYSICAL, ECOLOGICAL, TECHNOLOGICAL (MAN-MADE ENERGY
AND MASS TRANSFERS), ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL, SOCIOPOLITICAL,
VALUE-CULTURAL AND HUMAN-BIOLOGICAL. Such and
approach enables an optimal use of confirmed scientific knowledge and available data,
(iii) An adequate view of the conditions in which the problematique is emerging and
under which the solutions must be found require the recognition of the purposive
aspects of the human community and adaptiveness of human beings. The model of the
world system will have, therefore, two parts:
(1) the so-called causal part, representing dynamical processes which follow histoical
patterns of development and (2) the so-called goal-seeking part which represents
purposive changes under new conditions. The goal-seeking part in turn includes two
levels: the decision-making or actions level and the norms level; the former represents
the purposive response of the system while the latter represents the values and norms
which constrain and condition such a response.
3. Progress in the Model Construction
The construction of the model as described in Sec. 2 and with the objectives as
specified in Sec. 1 is certainly a rather complex task and the research is organized to
proceed in parallel in several directions. The overall assessment of the model status is
the following:
The model has been developed up to the stage where it can be used for policy analysis
related to a number of critical issues, such as: energy resources utilization and
technology assessment; food demand and production; population growth and the
affect of timing of birth control programs; reduction of inequities in regional economic
developments; depletion dynamics of certain resources, particularly oil reserves;
phosphorus use as fertilizer; regional unemployment; constraints on growth due to
labor, energy or export limitation, etc.
Specific developments which enable use of the model as described above include the
following:
1. A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DEVELOPED AND VALIDATED BY AN EXTENSIVE SET OF DATA. The
model has two levels - macro and micro. On the MACRO LEVEL the model of each
region INCLUDES THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT, TOTAL IMPORTS AND
EXPORTS, CAPITAL AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF FINAL DEMAND SUCH AS PUBLIC CONSUMPTION,
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, AND TOTAL INVESTMENT. ON THE
MICRO LEVEL EIGHT PRODUCTION SECTORS ARE RECOGNIZED:
AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING, FOOD PROCESSING, ENERGY,
MINING, SERVICES, BANKING AND TRADE, AND RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION. The input-output framework is used for the intermediate
demands. A FULL SCALE MICRO TRADE MATRIX ALSO HAS BEEN
DEVELOPED.
2. A WORLD POPULATION MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED IN TERMS
OF THE SAME REGIONS AS THE ECONOMIC MODEL. The model has been
validited by the data available. In each region the population structure is represented in
terms of four age groups with appropriate delays which make possible assessment of
population momentum and assessment of the effectiveness of implementation of
various population control measures.
3. AN ENERGY MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED which gives for each
region the consumption and production of energy and interregional exchange of energy
resources as a function of economic factors. Energy is treated both in composite terms
and in reference to individual energy sources, namely solid fuel, liquid fuel, nuclear,
gas and hydro.
4. A FOOD PRODUCTION AND ARABLE LAND USE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSTRUCTED which allows the assessment of a number of food related issues
including: the need and availability of phosphorus required for intensive agriculture,
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF NATURAL
DISASTERS SUCH AS DROUGHT, CROP FAILURE DUE TO DISEASE, ETC.
5. A MAJOR CONCERN IN THE APPLICATION OF THE COMPUTER
MODEL is its proper utilization so as to avoid dependence on the deterministic aspects
of model operation. In order to avoid this an interactive method of computer
simulation analysis has been developed. THE METHOD REPRESENTS A
SYMBIOSIS OF MAN AND COMPUTER IN WHICH THE COMPUTER
PROVIDES THE LOGICAL AND NUMERICAL CAPABILITY WHILE MAN
PROVIDES THE VALUES, INTUITION AND EXPERIENCE. The method utilizes
an option specification and selection program which enables the policy analyst or
decision-maker to evaluate alternative options on various levels of the decision process,
i.e., with respect to goals, strategies, tactical and implementational factors. SPECIAL
ATTENTION IS PAID TO THE NORM CHANGING PROCESSES.
4. Progress in Application
THE MODEL HAS BEEN USED both for the assessment of alternative scenarios
for future regional and global developments (under different regional conditions) as
well as in the interactive mode selection of policy options (specifically for the energy
crises issues in developed regions).
OUR EFFORTS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ON FURTHER USE OF THE ALREADY DEVELOPED MODEL. THE PLANS
INCLUDE EMPHASIS IN THE FOLLOWING THREE DIRECTIONS:
(i) Assessment in the changes over time of the span of options available to solve some
major crisis problems.
(ii) IMPLEMENTATION of the regional models in different parts of the world and
their connection via a satellite communication network for the purpose of joint
assessment of the long term global future by teams from the various regions.
(iii) Implementation of the vision for the future outlined by leaders from an
underdeveloped region in order TO ASSESS with the model EXISTING OBSTACLES
AND THE MEANS WHEREBY THE VISION MIGHT BECOME REALITY.
kappy0405
21-08-2010, 08:21 PM
Club of Rome: leaders of the environmental scam.
kbeet
30-08-2010, 01:56 AM
New World Order
Club of Rome Report
REGIONALIZED AND ADAPTIVE MODEL
OF THE GLOBAL WORLD SYSTEM

Report on the Progress in the
STRATEGY FOR SURVIVAL PROJECT
of the
Club of Rome
Mihajlo Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel, Directors

"C O N F I D E N T I A L"

September 17, 1973
1. Motivation and Objectives
The world problematique formulated by the CLUB OF ROME is not only global in
nature, involving factors traditionally considered as unrelated, but also points to the
crisis situations which are developing in spite of the noblest of intentions and, indeed,
as their corollary. To point out the problematique and the spectrum of critical and
traumatic situations it entails is not enough; the acceptance of the reality of the
problematique MUST BE FOLLOWED BY CHANGES IF THE CONCERN IS NOT
TO REMAIN PURELY ACADEMIC. It is necessary, therefore, to present the issues
within the problematique in specific and relevant terms which requires regions
interpretation of the global issues. Furthermore, a basis should be provided for the
resolution of conflicts (inevitably accompanying the problematique-type situations)
through cooperation rather than confrontation. These factors have provided the
motivation for initiation of the Strategy for Survival project which calls for the
construction of a regionalized and adaptive model of the total world system with tht
following specific objectives:
(1) TO ENABLE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SCENARIOS FOR THE
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD SYSTEM which represent visions of
the world future stemming from different cultures and value systems and reflecting
hopes and fears in different regions of the world.
(ii) To develop a planning and options-assessment tool for long-range issues, and
thereby TO PROVIDE A BASIS FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION by cooperation
rather than confrontation.
2. Basic Structure of the Model
The basic characteristics of the model are:
(i) THE WORLD SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED in terms of interacting regions with
provisions made to investigate any individual country or subregion in the context of
regional and global development. Presently the world system is represented BY TEN
REGIONS: NORTH AMERICA, WESTERN EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE,
JAPAN, REST OF DEVELOPED WORLD, LATIN AMERICA, MIDDLE EAST,
REST OF AFRICA, SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA, AND CHINA.
(ii) In order to be able to deal with the complex of factors involved in problematique
in a way which is sound, credible and systematic, a hierarchical structure has bee
adopted for the model in which each level in the hierarchy represents the evolution of
the world system within a context defined by a given set of laws and principles.
Specifically, the levels involved are:
GEO-PHYSICAL, ECOLOGICAL, TECHNOLOGICAL (MAN-MADE ENERGY
AND MASS TRANSFERS), ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL, SOCIOPOLITICAL,
VALUE-CULTURAL AND HUMAN-BIOLOGICAL. Such and
approach enables an optimal use of confirmed scientific knowledge and available data,
(iii) An adequate view of the conditions in which the problematique is emerging and
under which the solutions must be found require the recognition of the purposive
aspects of the human community and adaptiveness of human beings. The model of the
world system will have, therefore, two parts:
(1) the so-called causal part, representing dynamical processes which follow histoical
patterns of development and (2) the so-called goal-seeking part which represents
purposive changes under new conditions. The goal-seeking part in turn includes two
levels: the decision-making or actions level and the norms level; the former represents
the purposive response of the system while the latter represents the values and norms
which constrain and condition such a response.
3. Progress in the Model Construction
The construction of the model as described in Sec. 2 and with the objectives as
specified in Sec. 1 is certainly a rather complex task and the research is organized to
proceed in parallel in several directions. The overall assessment of the model status is
the following:
The model has been developed up to the stage where it can be used for policy analysis
related to a number of critical issues, such as: energy resources utilization and
technology assessment; food demand and production; population growth and the
affect of timing of birth control programs; reduction of inequities in regional economic
developments; depletion dynamics of certain resources, particularly oil reserves;
phosphorus use as fertilizer; regional unemployment; constraints on growth due to
labor, energy or export limitation, etc.
Specific developments which enable use of the model as described above include the
following:
1. A COMPUTER MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC SYSTEM HAS
BEEN DEVELOPED AND VALIDATED BY AN EXTENSIVE SET OF DATA. The
model has two levels - macro and micro. On the MACRO LEVEL the model of each
region INCLUDES THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT, TOTAL IMPORTS AND
EXPORTS, CAPITAL AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF FINAL DEMAND SUCH AS PUBLIC CONSUMPTION,
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, AND TOTAL INVESTMENT. ON THE
MICRO LEVEL EIGHT PRODUCTION SECTORS ARE RECOGNIZED:
AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING, FOOD PROCESSING, ENERGY,
MINING, SERVICES, BANKING AND TRADE, AND RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION. The input-output framework is used for the intermediate
demands. A FULL SCALE MICRO TRADE MATRIX ALSO HAS BEEN
DEVELOPED.
2. A WORLD POPULATION MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED IN TERMS
OF THE SAME REGIONS AS THE ECONOMIC MODEL. The model has been
validited by the data available. In each region the population structure is represented in
terms of four age groups with appropriate delays which make possible assessment of
population momentum and assessment of the effectiveness of implementation of
various population control measures.
3. AN ENERGY MODEL HAS BEEN CONSTRUCTED which gives for each
region the consumption and production of energy and interregional exchange of energy
resources as a function of economic factors. Energy is treated both in composite terms
and in reference to individual energy sources, namely solid fuel, liquid fuel, nuclear,
gas and hydro.
4. A FOOD PRODUCTION AND ARABLE LAND USE MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSTRUCTED which allows the assessment of a number of food related issues
including: the need and availability of phosphorus required for intensive agriculture,
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF NATURAL
DISASTERS SUCH AS DROUGHT, CROP FAILURE DUE TO DISEASE, ETC.
5. A MAJOR CONCERN IN THE APPLICATION OF THE COMPUTER
MODEL is its proper utilization so as to avoid dependence on the deterministic aspects
of model operation. In order to avoid this an interactive method of computer
simulation analysis has been developed. THE METHOD REPRESENTS A
SYMBIOSIS OF MAN AND COMPUTER IN WHICH THE COMPUTER
PROVIDES THE LOGICAL AND NUMERICAL CAPABILITY WHILE MAN
PROVIDES THE VALUES, INTUITION AND EXPERIENCE. The method utilizes
an option specification and selection program which enables the policy analyst or
decision-maker to evaluate alternative options on various levels of the decision process,
i.e., with respect to goals, strategies, tactical and implementational factors. SPECIAL
ATTENTION IS PAID TO THE NORM CHANGING PROCESSES.
4. Progress in Application
THE MODEL HAS BEEN USED both for the assessment of alternative scenarios
for future regional and global developments (under different regional conditions) as
well as in the interactive mode selection of policy options (specifically for the energy
crises issues in developed regions).
OUR EFFORTS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ON FURTHER USE OF THE ALREADY DEVELOPED MODEL. THE PLANS
INCLUDE EMPHASIS IN THE FOLLOWING THREE DIRECTIONS:
(i) Assessment in the changes over time of the span of options available to solve some
major crisis problems.
(ii) IMPLEMENTATION of the regional models in different parts of the world and
their connection via a satellite communication network for the purpose of joint
assessment of the long term global future by teams from the various regions.
(iii) Implementation of the vision for the future outlined by leaders from an
underdeveloped region in order TO ASSESS with the model EXISTING OBSTACLES
AND THE MEANS WHEREBY THE VISION MIGHT BECOME REALITY.

what you just described is exactly the same functions of the peace palace and the united nations. which settels global disputes where peace palace is the un world justice system.

wikipedia lookup
peace palace
united nations

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